Want More Effective China Supply Chain Forecasts? Start Sharing

“There are moments when forecasting is comparatively easy — and other moments when it is impossible,” wrote technology forecaster Paul Saffo in 2007.

Right now, most supply chain forecast experts would say we’re firmly in the “impossible” camp. U.S. tariffs change from 145% one day to a 90-day pause the next. No one knows what’s next.

So, how do you plan for times like these? How can you make your forecasts actually strengthen your supply chain? We think the answer is more communication with your suppliers. 

But before we dive deeper, let’s go over a quick forecasting primer to make sure everyone’s on the same page.

The China Forecasting Ideal

When we talk about forecasting in relation to a China sourcing operation, we’re talking about two concepts. These are “supply chain forecasting” — predicting flows of goods and materials — and “demand forecasting,” which focuses on how likely customers are to buy what you sell.

There are many complex methodologies and arguments about which is the best way to forecast, but the goal is straightforward: know what you’ll need, when you’ll need it and how to get it there.

Put simply, if your forecasts were absolutely perfect, you’d never have too much stock and never too little. This is the ideal scenario. It’s also clearly impossible. Still, aiming for this target helps us get closer, even when the world throws curveballs.

The Issue with Traditional Forecasting

Traditionally, you make a forecast by looking backwards and spotting trends.

In toys, for example, most U.S. sales happen in the last three months of the year. So, you can make a pretty confident prediction (or demand forecast) that the same will happen each year.

As a result, toy sellers tend to follow a set plan: source more toys in spring and summer, ship in fall and sell big in winter. This insight allows you to make a prediction about your supply chain (yes, a supply chain forecast).

For example, getting a container ship loaded with your product out of China in the busy spring and summer months demands more pre-planning and coordination than in winter, when shipping lanes are quieter.

Aside from the occasional economic downturn or rare black swan event, this yearly cycle has basically repeated for decades. As such, toy suppliers in China and buyers elsewhere haven’t needed to talk much about forecasts — everyone knows the routine.

But now, with tariffs and trade rules changing fast, even steady industries are left guessing about the state of play next week. The old playbook doesn’t always work when the rules can change overnight. What will the tariff level be next week? Are we looking at a recession? Are American consumers buying two dolls or 30 dolls this Christmas? Nobody knows.

Focus on What You Can Control

When things are unpredictable, it helps to focus on what you can actually control.

Make two lists: 

What You Can’t Control:

• Government policies: Tariffs, new trade laws, export bans 
• Economic shocks: Recessions, inflation, currency swings
• Unexpected events: Factory shutdowns, disasters, pandemics

What You Can Control:

• Data quality: Keep sales, inventory, and supplier info up to date
• Contingency plans: Prep for “what ifs” and keep some extra stock
• Supplier relationships: Share forecasts with suppliers and do it often

Keeping these lists helps you focus your time and resources where they will actually make a difference. And it stops you from wasting energy worrying about things you can’t change.

For example, many buyers and suppliers at our April Supply Chain Roundtable — right after “liberation day” — agreed that the best approach was to keep calm and carry on rather than make rushed decisions. With a 90-day pause on tariffs now in place, that steady approach proved wiser than reacting in panic. Knowing what’s in your control is the first step to making smart, confident decisions.

Scenario Planning

The number of scenarios you need to prepare for will depend on your industry and where you work.

For instance, our toy seller should gameplan for different levels of tariffs and consumer sentiment, while a smart home device seller might also consider looming tech restrictions on Chinese imports in addition to tariffs.

The general rule of thumb is to plan for three to five different scenarios for any sales and operations planning. The exact number for your business depends on how many variables could affect your particular product.

Sharing Forecasts with Suppliers

One thing always holds true: sharing your forecasts with your suppliers is essential. Clear, regular communication is the best way to handle the unknown and keep your forecasts useful.

Sharing forecasts with Chinese suppliers is still pretty rare. It’s not the norm — industry reports say it, and we’ve seen it firsthand. Usually, it’s the Chinese supplier chasing the buyer for a forecast, not the other way around. And when things get uncertain, buyers are even less likely to share. Who wants to stick their neck out if they’re not sure their own numbers are solid?

There are plenty of reasons for this. Procurement folks often worry that sharing a supply chain forecast could backfire — maybe it’ll create expectations, or maybe sensitive info will leak.

But when buyers hold back, it actually ramps up risk for both sides. Suppliers are left guessing, which can lead to delays, higher costs or missed opportunities.

Sharing helps your suppliers because it gives them time to plan production, buy materials, and manage their own schedules. When suppliers can prepare, they’re less likely to run into delays or shortages — which means you get better prices, more reliable deliveries, and fewer surprises.

How to Share Supply Chain Forecasts

We’d advise against sending a PPT and hoping for the best. Instead, make sure your supplier gets it, understands it, and acts on it. If you don’t know this, your effort is wasted.

There are two main ways to ensure your forecasts are truly effective.

1. Build a real relationship yourself. Visit China, speak the language, or use suppliers who speak good English. You’re going to want to have discussions with them. Can they act upon the forecast? Does it align with what they’re seeing on the ground? Feedback is essential!
2. Have someone on the ground. A demand planner in China can build trust, spot trouble early, and turn feedback into action. That way, your forecasts don’t just sit in an inbox — they get used.

In Short

You can’t control tariffs, shocks, or disasters. But you can control how you share forecasts with your suppliers. Communication and regular supplier engagement are the glue that binds together all other forecasting efforts. The companies that do this well are the ones that keep moving, no matter what happens next.

Remember:

• Work Share Early, Share Often: Don’t wait until you have perfect numbers. Even a rough forecast helps your supplier plan production and manage materials.
• Talk It Through: Don’t just send a file and hope for the best. Set up a call or meeting to walk through your forecast, answer questions, and make sure your supplier understands what you need.
• Build Real Relationships: Visit your suppliers in person when possible, or have a trusted partner on the ground. Face-to-face contact builds trust and keeps communication open.
• Follow Up: After you share a supply chain forecast, check in regularly. Ask how your supplier is using the information and whether they see any potential issues.